I am a nerd about data. One thing I constantly do is take different tests which measure different health metrics. One which has been very scientifically validated is the World Fitness Test. It is a questionnaire that uses an algorithm to calculate VO2Max so you can take it online. While I prefer the actual VO2Max test done in the lab, these algorithm results are similar to actual, so their science is good. I am 55 years old biologically and have the fitness level of a 37-year-old.
I do a lot of private investments, over 90 so far. People are pitching me all the time. I have made many bad investments and a couple of good ones. The other day this questions popped into my head after one pitch:
“Am I getting paid or getting laid?”
“getting paid” means investing in a strong business with good fundamentals, strong team, and great growth (actual not pro forma). Even if the business isn’t profitable, if there are solid fundamental margins, they are able to attract customers at a good cost and they are solving a real need, the business is likely to work. As I evaluated all my investments, the ones that I was “getting paid” returned about 4X the average return.
“getting laid” means investing in a sexy dream. The team may be great, the market is huge, the product idea sounds amazing, but the execution has not delivered the fundamentals yet. There is still much execution to turn the dream into a product and a business. Many times founders want a valuation of over $10M for their dream with little or no execution. As I evaluated all my investments, these tended to perform below average. Basically because it took more money than the founders thought to execute and “get paid”.
Now the Unicorn is BOTH. A strong fundamental business in a huge sexy dreamy market. There have been a couple of those, having nothing to do with my intelligence in picking them, just pure dumb luck. The Unicorns performed 10-20X the average. That is why they are unicorns.
I am not telling you how to invest, or which type to invest in. This is just one of may questions I ask myself before investing. I weigh this against the valuation, stage, management team, my investment size, risk tolerance at the time, and make a decision. What asking this question has done for me is to REDUCE the number of “getting laid” deals I do. Not because there is anything wrong with them, but I can identify them up front more easily and I know the average returns are less. So I tend to pass.
Was reading an interview with Fight Club author Chuck Palahniuk and he mentioned this about Brad Pitt:
“Brad Pitt had made some movies he wasn’t particularly happy with – one was Meet Joe Black – and he said every movie is the antidote to the one you just made; that the real blessing of failure is that it is the only thing that gives you the isolation and time to reinvent yourself. If you’re moving from success to success, you don’t have that daydreaming period that will allow you to come up with something new and unique.”
That parallels my experience. Failure is never fun. I have been fired before. I have had companies fail. I have had investments fail, losing millions. But after failure, a weird thing happens: space opens up. You are free of the responsibilities to make your last thing “successful” and have the open space to daydream and create. Remember this: failure opens up space.
A couple of years ago I heard Elon Must describing First Principles thinking. Turns out most of us reason by analogy and we must in order to get through life. When you pick up a taco, you must trust that every other taco you have eaten in that place has been good and you haven’t gotten sick, so you are very likely to have a good taco. But if you want to invent a new taco, you have to ask the question, What are the components that make a taco, how do they work together to make a “great” taco?
For the last year I have been applying this way of thinking to my health and fitness. In the past, I would read a book about a particular fad diet or workout that worked for someone I know, and my monkey mind would say “I can do that, seems to work, I will try it out.” That is reasoning by analogy. It worked for X, therefore, it should work for Y. In health, most of my friends just live how they want and trust that the doctor will fix them when they break. This is reason by analogy. Turns out a flawed analogy when you dive into medical error rates and start to question your doctor about stuff he doesn’t know about (which is alot – anything outside his/her specialty). So I started to ask myself a couple questions:
- Do I like to work out? or do I want the results of working out?
- Do I like to meditate? or do I want the results of lots of meditation?
- If I want to build Muscle, is workout X the best way to do that? Or are there faster, better ways? If the first principle is “build muscle”, is the solution being sold by the “fitness guru” the BEST way? or Their way?
- Does my doctor decide on diagnosis by first principles or by analogy? Does he have time to get to first principles?
- Is the “cure” being sold for anything, actually getting at the first principle cause of the problem? or symptoms?
Turns out I got many bad answers. First principle thinking is hard and causes lots of brain activity. An analogy is much easier.
Here are a couple of stories where thinking about first principles has changed my decisions on a couple of vectors:
I used to have serious chronic sinus infections. I went to a lot of doctors. Most prescribed antibiotics or surgery. One of my friends is a John Hopkin’s trained ENT surgeon. When I asked him he said (surprise!) “Surgery.” Hammer, meet nail. So I asked him how the surgery to make my sinuses larger would fix the root cause which was infection/inflammation. He said it wouldn’t, there would just be more room for the inflammation and it shouldn’t be a problem. So I kept looking for something which would fix the underlying problem: Infection and Inflammation. I ended up with a sinus rinse which killed it and it has never come back with regular use. Why treat symptoms if you can figure out the cause?
Fitness: working out
I like to ride by bike and surf. But are those “fitness strategies”? Not really. They are activities. They do some muscle building and cardiovascular strengthening, but only for those activities. If I like to surf and bike and want to be fit enough to do those activities, do I just do more of those activities or are there other things that can be done to keep me in top shape for those activities. The “weekend warrior” problem is real. Doing an activity you like on a weak base is not a good strategy. So how to stay fit for the activities I want to do without being a professional at them and taking all my time on them. I added the Vasper machine twice a week for 20 minutes. Doing that I am able to surf and bike longer and stronger when I can fit in the time for those. The First Principal is Stay fit with minimum time so when I need fitness, I have it. I want to be fit, I don’t want to be a professional athlete. I want to be able to do activities I love, AND have time for work and family and all the rest.
I used to suffer from bouts of clinical depression. Is depression caused by a lack of Prozac? Then why do doctors prescribe Prozac for depression? Is depression caused by not enough one-hour sessions talking with someone on a couch? What is the root cause (first principal) of depression? Depression is a lack of happiness. Maybe creating more happiness would reverse the happiness/depression balance and tip over. So I added a gratitude practice, meditation, neuro feedback, and some other things which got to the root cause of the negative emotions and substituted positive emotions. Depression gone. This one was one of the most powerful times when I realized that the “CURE” which was being described was NOT getting at the ROOT CAUSE of the issue. Depression is not a lack of Prozac or talk therapy. 95% of our emotional reactions are triggered by the subconscious which is not the part talking on the couch. You have to get to the root causes.
Next time you are looking for a solution to any health and
Was listening to Bulletproof radio today with Dave and Jack Canfield. Jack recounted a dinner with Ken Behring where they were discussing how to get to true, lasting happiness. Ken said his path had four phases.
- Stuff (get some money and buy the stuff you always thought would make you happy).
- More stuff (since the first wave didn’t work, buy some more – bigger house, bigger plane, etc.)
- Different stuff (Ken bought a football team – the Seahawks, just to try something new).
- Purpose. Finally, find a purpose. That will deliver lasting happiness. Ken founded a charity providing wheel chairs to the third world.
This path rings true to me. As it is similar to my own. I will put more thought into my particular steps, but I like this frame on it. In the end it is about purpose and the people around you who share that.
Read the two following list of words that describe two different people. One is Bad and one is Good. Which is which?
- EVIL, HATE, ANGER, JOY, CARE, LOVE
- LOVE, CARE, JOY, ANGER, HATE, EVIL
If you said #1 is Bad and #2 is Good, then congratulations you are like 99% of people who look at these lists. But you are also a victim of the priming effect. Priming is when the brain subconsciously draws a conclusion based on the first thing it sees, or upon an existing state. Since the first list of words begins with “Evil, Hate” the brain wants to make that list “Bad”. The second list begins with “Love and Care” so the brain wants to make that list “Good”. But in fact both lists are the same, just in reverse order. So both people are described with exactly the same descriptors, just in a different order. Both are equal, but the brain wants to choose and put into buckets based on first words. Beware of Priming Effect in your own decisions.
“There is no “Truth”. Only Stories”
Yea I said that. It is a summary of lots that I have learned over the years. What do I mean? When I was younger I was often searching for the “Truth” with a capital “T”. The ANSWER. What I have found over time is that more and more things that I thought were “Truth” turned out to be stories that I was told, or that I believed. And that turns out to be the case for many “scientific facts.” For example, is the theory of Evolution a “Truth” or a story which matches our current data? It is a story. There are facts in there sure, but our current understanding is just a summary of what we know now. The details of that story are different today than they were 100 years ago. All scientific “Truths” are in fact our best guess about the Truth based on the data we now know. So basically the story we explain this complicated thing to ourselves to us today. 100 years from now the story is likely to have evolved. Hopefully more precise. I am especially suspicious of “Truths” that are judgments. For example “Global warming is bad”. That may be so, and that is a judgment. “Climate change is happening” is much more precise and free of judgment.
So now when I hear a “Truth”, I ask myself a couple of questions:
- What is the story that this person is telling me?
- What is the data and assumptions behind that story?
- How much of the story is emotion versus data?
- Do I choose to believe the story? (knowing I am unlikely to ever have all the data)
I overheard a conversation about New Years resolutions last week. In it the guys were talking about long lists of New Years resolutions. And I of course was thinking about my own. But then for some reason a snippet from Milan Kundera quote popped into my head “there are only two ways to define the self: addition and subtraction.” That has always rung true to me. I switch between addition and subtraction. When the to do lists get too long often I will simplify it to just one of each. Out of all the possible things I could do (addition) and not do (subtraction), what is the most impactful one of each I tan think of for this project? For 2019 mine are
Add: more personal time with my employees at upgrade labs
One of my favorite tools of self analysis is the via character strength profile . I hear a lot of advice (which i agree with) that people should play to their strengths and not avoid their fears. But what are my strengths ? Character strengths? This tool tells you. My top six are Creativity, love of learning, perspective, honesty, perseverance (resilience), and judgement. Pretty much straight up ceo stuff. That makes sense.
The more I read the Stoics, the more I agree with the general approach to life. I am also fascinated that, without the aide of much science, they got so many things right. We now know through Quantum Physics that everything is some form of energy wave. We are all made of the same stuff, just vibrating at different frequencies so some appear solid, some fluid, some alive, some dead, etc. Modern quantified spirituality guys like Dr. Joe Dispenza call it the “Universal Field”. I have no idea what it is, but the Stoics, and Marcus, in particular, nailed it. Basically, we are all connected, made of the same stuff. So remember that when you get tilted by someone. A part of them is you and vice versa. Would you be so tilted at yourself?