March 8, 2005

The Hydrogen economy could kill us all

I have been uncomfortable for some time with all the hype around the "hydrogen economy". Limitless fuel with no damage to the environment. Sounds too good to be true. Well I have found a guy: MagneGas who may be a whacko, but has some astounding claims about creating hydrogen from a regeneration process (like Natural gas the most commonly cited source). Check this out:

"We recall that the use of hydrogen as fuel does resolve the environmental problems of fossil fuels due to excessive emissions of carcinogenic substances and carbon dioxide. However, the combustion of hydrogen originating from regeneration processes (e.g., from natural gas) implies the permanent removal from our atmosphere of oxygen in a directly usable form, a serious environmental problem called oxygen depletion, since the combustion turns hydrogen and oxygen into water whose separation to restore the original oxygen balance is prohibitive due to cost. We then show that a conceivable global use of hydrogen from the indicated regeneration origin in complete replacement of fossil fuels would imply the permanent removal from our atmosphere of 2.8875x107 metric tons of O2 /day, with consequential termination of all life forms in our planet in a few years."

Lets see. Limitless supply of energy with only water out the tailpipe, but using up all the oxygen so we suffocate. Hummmm. Let me think on that one for a minute. And why all the hype around Hydrogen? In part because the feedstock to create the hydrogen is fossil fuels! It leaves the same oil interests in charge.

I don't buy the hype. I bet the smarty pants scientists will come up with a way around oxygen depletion, but I am convinced oil interests will drive natural gas as the feedstock and that doesn't change our dependence on foreign sources. None of the hydrogen initiatives adequately address where the hydrogen will come from.

Just to make it crystal clear, I am NOT betting on the Hydrogen Economy.

Posted by Martin at 12:10 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack

March 7, 2005

Google validates one of my bets

Remember when you needed thick clients to do heavy graphics work like zooming and panning? Check out Google Maps to see the future of the browser. As my friend Troy puts it "click, drag, click". You have an incredibly rich graphical mapping environment in your browser without any significant plug-ins. And yes I ran it in Firefox.

I continue to believe all the interesting client side development will be done in the browser.

Posted by Martin at 11:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 8, 2005

My 2005 areas of investment interest


Ok,
enough obsessing about RAID. How about that venture capital thing? Well the RAID project has probably cleared my head a little. Here is where I am going to be looking for new investments in 2005:

1. The next big thing in computer Security.
2. IT meets Bio/Pharma/Healthcare
3. IT meets Energy
4. Alternative Energy reduces US dependance on foreign sources of energy (maybe clean and green).

Got any plans?

Posted by Martin at 1:06 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

November 30, 2004

My Bet for PC client application development

I have been seeing quite a few plans recently for client development environments. The latest one was for a toolkit to make developing and deploying java applications on PC clients easier for an enterprise. I don't get it. The browser is such a good and ubiquitious development environment. Why use Java on a PC? I understand Java on the phone where resources are severely constrained and the browser is too heavy. But resources are not constrained on the PC. I also don't understand why people write VB apps for the PC, but that is another story. So here is one of my meta investment bets. The vast majority of client development on the PC will be done in the browser. Now I haven't decided if that is IE or Firefox or something else, but I do believe it is the browser. Microsoft had better watch out for Firefox. It is the first browser to actually get double digit share against IE in years. And it is more standards based than IE. Normally Msft would swat Firefox like a fly, but in the current regulatory environment it is much harder to do. Look for microsoft in increase it's integration of IE and the server extensions to keep the lock. And .NET framework (which of course will be much better supported in IE). But Firefox does offer an interesting alternative to IE. Keep an eye on it.

Posted by Martin at 10:51 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

November 8, 2004

New Category: My Bets

Over the years, I have peppered my posts with the assumptions upon which I make investment decisions. I think it is about time that I organize all that stuff in one place. By reading the "My Bets" category, you should be able to learn what overall market assumptions I am making in different areas. If you have a company idea that goes against one of my core assumptions, don't bother sending it in. Or if you do, be prepared to make a damn good case why I should waste my time and change my mind. Hope this helps....

Posted by Martin at 12:05 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack