Deep Green Crystals

Posted by Martin at 12:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

former Royal Dutch Shell Chairman: "We are sleepwalking into a crisis"

thanks aron

Ron Oxburgh, former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell, made a forecast over the weekend that oil will reach $150 per barrel in the coming years because drilling for it will become much more expensive.It interesting to note that Oxburgh is also a geologist.
Oxburgh gave an interview printed Sunday in The Independent, in which he said: "We can probably go on extracting oil from the ground for a very long time, but it is going to get very expensive indeed."In other words, even if the oil resource has yet to reach its peak, it may not matter as other forces will press prices higher, perhaps prohibitively higher, helping to fuel demand for "alternatives."
Said Oxburgh, "And once you see oil prices in excess of $100 or $150 a barrel, the alternatives simply become more attractive on price grounds if on no others."
As we know though, there are in fact many others reasons to prefer the alternatives, and for some, price is even the least important of those.But sky-high prices will surely help to make the transition.
He warned that the oil industry seems to be "sleepwalking into a crisis."Fortunately, there are others who are working to create the new energy economy who are wide awake and not dreaming; with eyes open and facing forward they are seizing the opportunity in front of them.
One of the signs that they have succeeded will be when we no longer call clean energy an "alternative" but instead refer to fossil fuels that way.Within the context of our environment and climate, our security and independence, oil may not be cheap at any price.

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September 15, 2007

What i think about the current "liquidity crisis"

Rather than dealing with a liquidity crisis, we are dealing with an old fashioned confidence crisis. This is both good news and bad news. The bad news is it may not be alleviated simply with central bank injections of liquidity or easier monetary conditions invoked by lowering the Fed funds or discount rate. If monetary restraint or illiquidity is not causing this crisis, monetary ease alone will not solve it. The good news, however, is we need only alter an attitude or emotion (i.e. confidence), which could happen quickly. Corporate balance sheets and consumer buying power remain strong when you analyze the fundamentals. If the central problem was more balance sheet or income statement oriented, it would be much more serious, it would be more difficult to revive, and it would take longer to improve.

Hummm... What could provide a quick boost of confidence?
- Fed lowering interest rates (while actual financial impact would not be meaningful, the confidence impact would be significant)
- Banking write-offs. Yes write-offs. The fear is that there is ALOT of liability lurking on balance sheets that is somehow hidden. Especially on the AAA credit of guys like Morgan Stanley. I bet there isn't that much bad stuff there. When Morgan Stanley reports their quarter, takes their medicine on write-offs, that will put the fear to bed. The absolute dollar amount will also, I believe, be WAY lower than the fear has baked in. Bingo, instant rally.
- a large debt roll-over getting bids. The buyers of debt are sitting on piles of cash and playing a game of chicken right now with sellers. The bid-ask spread is simply very large. Someone has to blink. I believe the buyers have the upper hand as the sellers need to get debt off the balance sheet. We saw last week a big slice of debt go for 97 cents on the dollar. A loss for the seller, but a great deal for the buyer, raising their returns. These money "losses" are not lost when principal is sold at a discount (unless the offerer defaults on the loan), the money simply is transfered from the seller's balance sheet to buyer's balance sheet. I predict MASSIVE profits in the debt focused funds that are buying now. Remember you make money buying low and selling high. Now is low.

Posted by Martin at 7:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

I am supporting Rudi

Ok, the campaign has been in swing for awhile. About a month and a half ago I joined Rudi's campaign and am helping on energy security issues. You will start to see posts here that reflect my opinion and decision. Basically it comes down to the fact that he is the only one who can beat Hillary. And Hillary will get the nomination. And a Hillary presidency is the most disasterous thing that could happen to America at this time.

A few tidbits:

From Moore Insights:

A recent survey of voters in Washington State reveals a presidential ballot match-up between Hillary Clinton and GOP frontrunner Rudy Giuliani is a statistical dead heat today.While 41% would vote for Giuliani in his bid for President, 41% would support Clinton and 18% would not vote for either candidate or are unsure.

More calculus:

- Rudy is competitive in a host of blue states
- He doesnt lose any red states
- He helps Rs in urban/suburban house districts (place of majority of losses in 2006)
- Helps senate Rs more than anyone else
- Is not the big turn off to social conservatives that liberal media wants folks to believe as long as he says he will appoint Alito/Roberts type judges he will get support. Maybe not grass roots help but support.
- Hilary has highest negatives of any candidate ever running for office of Presidency at this point in a race

Posted by Martin at 7:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 13, 2007

BIOF auditors resign.

In reviewing some recent SEC filings one of our financial analysts noticed that Deloitte resigned from Biofuel Energy Corp on August 21^st.The resignation was one week after Biofuel announced its second quarter results, and two months after Biofuel completed its June IPO. If you recall, DT had given Biofuel a material weakness letter related to the Companys internal controls over financial reporting. In Biofuels S-1 the material weakness was related to a lack of adequate financial systems, lack of adequate accounting staff and lack of written policies and procedures. Biofuel hired Grant Thornton as its new auditors on Sept. 12^th.

hummmm.

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china air polution

A picture from Beijing at 12:00 noon on a sunny day in April of this year.
They need biodiesel

Posted by Martin at 11:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 12, 2007

The horsemen cometh

Lets see

1.  Humberto threatens Gulf coast oil infrastructure with 80mph winds.
2.  Oil hits over $80/barrel for first time in history.
3.  Israel hits Syria with air strike.
4.  Putin dissolves government.

and he brings $100 oil for Christmas.

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here comes Humberto

80mph winds, category 1 storm.

Posted by Martin at 11:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 7, 2007

india too folks

Posted by Martin at 9:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

china petroleum product demand thru 2020

up and to the right folks

Posted by Martin at 9:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

china and india car ownership just starting

humm. lets see.  China and india are barely on the chart today for car ownership per 1000 people. And every other country going through industrialization has seen the knee of the curve around 3-9,000 per capita GDP.  Which both India and China are going to break through in next two years.  That means the vehicle stock in China if it follows the Korea/japan/france, etc. curve will go up 30X in the next 20 years.  I wonder if those will be gas/diesel cars or hydrogen/electric.


Humm, let me see.  I think gas/diesel. 
Why?  What if you had a billion dollars today in the bank AND the PERFECT design for a hydrogen car and/or a mass market fully electric car.  How long would it take you to build the factory?  5 years.  How many cars would it build?  Not even one month's consumption TODAY in China for a year of manufacturing.  Basically you couldn't build the new cars fast enough.  And you couldn't build the related infrastructure for distribution of the fuel fast enough either. 

Lets face it folks we are stuck with internal combustion and diesel for the VAST majority of all auto growth for the next 20 years.  What we need to do is put cleaner fuels in those cars/trucks.

Posted by Martin at 9:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

crude continues to rise (without any real events)

thanks Aron

Crude rises for fifth day on supply concerns
Crude oil rose for a fifth day after a government report showed a decline in crude and gasoline inventories. Crude-oil stockpiles dropped for the eighth time in nine weeks, an Energy Department report yesterday showed. OPEC may reject calls to increase supplies at its Sept. 11 meeting on concern energy demand will falter as U.S. economic growth slows. Crude oil futures for October delivery rose 18 cents to $76.48 a barrel at 2:25 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 14% from a year ago.

imagine what will happen if we actually have a huricane? or a cold snap? or a political event? or OPEC decides it wants a new boat?

Posted by Martin at 4:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Greenwood Technologies wins award

Greenwood Technologies (www.greenwoodfurnace.com/) won the Brilliant Innovations award in Distributed Energy for its clean burning wood boiler (furnace) that heats an entire home and provides all hot water. It is up to 85% efficient and enables home owners to replace oil, natural gas or propane as a fuel source for heating their home and replace it with wood. Through a process called wood gasification, the Greenwood burns not only the wood, but the smoke and gases released from the fire.

Posted by Martin at 12:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 6, 2007

the whole WorldWatch Food vs Fuel report

buy a printed copy here:  or download the pdf.

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the full spec list on my new Seven

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September 5, 2007

Required reading/watching "Scientific Challenges in Sustainable Energy Technology": Nate Lewis

Watching Nate Lewis's presentation on world wide energy consumption and how we could (or could not) change over next 50 years.  See summary below.  Download the presentation.  Watch the video.  Everyone this is required reading and watching.  This is 10X the data richness of Inconvenient Truth.  This is not just carbon, but total energy consumption.

_____________

This presentation will describe and evaluate the challenges, both
technical, political, and economic, involved with widespread adoption
of renewable energy technologies. First, we estimate the available
fossil fuel resources and reserves based on data from the World Energy
Assessment and World Energy Council. In conjunction with the current
and projected global primary power production rates, we then estimate
the remaining years of supply of oil, gas, and coal for use in primary
power production. We then compare the price per unit of energy of these
sources to those of renewable energy technologies (wind, solar thermal,
solar electric, biomass, hydroelectric, and geothermal) to evaluate the
degree to which supply/demand forces stimulate a transition to
renewable energy technologies in the next 20-50 years. Secondly, we
evaluate the greenhouse gas buildup limitations on carbon-based power
consumption as an unpriced externality to fossil-fuel consumption,
considering global population growth, increased global gross domestic
product, and increased energy efficiency per unit of globally averaged
GDP, as produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC). A greenhouse gas constraint on total carbon emissions, in
conjunction with global population growth, is projected to drive the
demand for carbon-free power well beyond that produced by conventional
supply/demand pricing tradeoffs, at potentially daunting levels
relative to current renewable energy demand levels. Thirdly, we
evaluate the level and timescale of R&D investment that is needed
to produce the required quantity of carbon-free power by the 2050
timeframe, to support the expected global energy demand for carbon-free
power. Fourth, we evaluate the energy potential of various renewable
energy resources to ascertain which resources are adequately available
globally to support the projected global carbon-free energy demand
requirements. Fifth, we evaluate the challenges to the chemical
sciences to enable the cost-effective production of carbon-free power
on the needed scale by the 2050 timeframe. Finally, we discuss the
effects of a change in primary power technology on the energy supply
infrastructure and discuss the impact of such a change on the modes of
energy consumption by the energy consumer and additional demands on the
chemical sciences to support such a transition in energy supply.

Posted by Martin at 10:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Worldwatch report food Vs Fuel; the winner Fuel and the small farmer

Worldwatch report sees many benefits from biofuels

FO Licht's World Ethanol & Biofuels Report
Tuesday August 07 2007

The increase in world agriculture prices caused by the global boom in biofuels could bring major benefits to the world's rural poor who have been suffering under low prices for decades, according to the Worldwatch Institute.

This is a conclusion of a major study entitled Biofuels for Transport: Global Potential and Implications for Energy and Agriculture, co-ordinated by the German Agency for Technical Cooperation and just published by Earthscan.

If implemented in smart ways on the basis of strong policies, hundreds of millions of the world's poorest people, the majority of whom live in rural areas, stand to benefit massively from the global biofuel transition, which will result in reduced food insecurity and increased incomes.

The report confirms many previous scientific assessments on the poverty alleviating potential of bio-based energy and products.

"Decades of declining agricultural prices have been reversed thanks to the growing use of biofuels. Rural farmers in some of the poorest nations have been decimated by US and European subsidies to crops such as corn, cotton, and sugar. But today's higher prices may allow them to sell their crops at a decent price. However, major agriculture reforms and infrastructure development will be needed to ensure that the increased benefits go to the world's 800 million undernourished people, most of whom live in rural areas", said Christopher Flavin, president of the Worldwatch Institute.

Biofuels for Transport, undertaken with support from the German Ministry of Food, Agriculture, and Consumer Protection, assesses the range of 'sustainability' issues the biofuels industry will present in the years ahead, ranging from implications for the global climate and water resources to biological diversity and the world's poor. The report finds that rising food prices are a hardship for some urban poor, who will need increased assistance from the UN World Food Programme and other relief efforts.

But, as many experts have stressed, a far larger group of poor people stands to benefit from biofuels, namely those who live in rural areas. The researchers stress that the central cause of food scarcity is poverty, and seeking food security by driving agricultural prices ever lower will hurt more people than it helps.

In fact, rising agricultural prices may have major economic benefits, especially to the vast mass of the rural poor. Biofuels can, for the first time, bring increased incomes and boost the food security of these people.

In Sub-Saharan Africa more than 60% of people make a living off the land and low agricultural prices as well as trade barriers and subsidies in the wealthy west have kept them in dire poverty. Biofuels offer a unique opportunity to break this lethal status quo, according to the report.

Moreover, the tripling in oil prices since 2002 has been an economic disaster for poor nations which in the future may be able to purchase fuel from their own farmers rather than spending scarce foreign exchange on imported oil. Of the 47 poorest countries, 38 are net importers of oil and 25 import all of their oil. The result of this disastrously costly dependence is a potential collapse of poverty alleviation, health, education, hunger and development efforts that are felt by all the weakest segments of society.

The UN recently found that some of the poorest countries are already forced to spend twice as much on oil imports, than on health care.

Since the Biofuels for Transport study was researched, biofuels growth has skyrocketed. According to the latest estimates, world biofuels production rose by 28% in 2006 to 44 bln litres, with fuel ethanol increasing by 22% and biodiesel rising by 80%. Although biofuels comprise less than 1% of the global liquid fuel supply, the surge in production of biofuels in 2006 met 17% of the increase in supply of all liquid fuels worldwide last year.

This rapid growth is having unintended impacts. Large-scale biofuels production can threaten biodiversity, as seen recently with palm oil plantations in Indonesia that are encroaching on forests and edging out the endangered orangutan population—worrying European consumers who have begun importing palm oil from Southeast Asia.

The book concludes that the long-term potential of biofuels is in the use of non-food feedstocks, including agricultural and forestry wastes, as well as fast-growing, cellulose-rich energy crops such as perennial grasses and trees. Following the model of Brazil's sugar cane-based biofuels industry, cellulosic ethanol could dramatically reduce the carbon dioxide and nitrogen pollution that results from today's biofuel crops.

The book recommends policies that protect natural resources, support a speedy transition to cellulosic technologies, and facilitate a sustainable international biofuels trade. Freer trade in biofuels should be coupled with

social and environmental standards and a credible system to certify compliance.

"Biofuels alone will not solve the world's transportation-related energy problems," concludes the report. "Development of these fuels must occur within the context of a transition to a more efficient, less polluting and more diversified global transport sector. They must be part of a portfolio of options that includes dramatic improvements in vehicle fuel economy, investment in public transportation, and better urban planning."

Biofuels for Transportation: Global Potential and Implications for Sustainable Agriculture and Energy in the 21st Century. Published in the UK by Earthscan.

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Europe Dieselization continues, breaks threshold

via Platts

Diesel demand in Germany, France and the UK is expected to rise 2.2% in 2007 to 20,676,000 mt, according to International Energy Agency data analysed by Platts, as Europe trends towards diesel powered transportation.

The agency estimates that France, the largest consumer of diesel in Europe, will have 7,834,000 mt of demand in 2007 averaging 652.8kt per month which is a 1.1% increase from the previous year.

Germany, the second largest consumer will have 7,521,000 mt of demand in 2007 averaging 626.7kt a month, a 3.4% build from 2006 and the UK will have 5,321,000 mt of demand in 2007, up 2.38% from 2006.

Europe has been moving towards a majority diesel fleet since the European Commission encouraged lower taxes on diesel fuel to encourage its spread at the pump.

This is because diesel engines are more fuel efficient and therefore more economical burning less CO2.
The lighter tax burden has kept diesel prices below gasoline across much of Europe for a number of years, except in the UK, making diesel cars more economical with cheaper running costs proving popular amongst consumers.

As a result, diesel demand into France, Germany and the UK has risen 23.9% from 16,684,000 mt per year in 2000 to 20,676,000 mt this year which equates to approximately 1000 cargoes of diesel.

At the same time, gasoline demand has declined as a higher percentage of new cars being sold are diesel cars.
Diesel cars are cheaper to run and as a result of advances in diesel engine technology amongst manufacturers, they are cleaner and quieter than they used to be.

Data provided by PSA, the collective Peugeot and Citroën brand, shows that the percentage of the European fleet [18 EU countries including France, Germany and the UK] of new car registrations has risen from 22.3% in 1997 to 50.8% in 2006.

It is the first time that more diesel powered cars were sold than gasoline powered cars.
The country with the highest percentage of diesel cars is France with 71.4% of new cars registered in 2006 diesel totaling 1,427,698 units.

Posted by Martin at 8:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Books on Blackberry

  I subscribed to Secret Agent from Joseph Conrad by email from DailyLit.  I don't like the e-mail interspersed with the other work ones. I want to save a couple segments and read when I have a couple minutes of downtime.  Humm what device is with me then?  My bberry. How about subscribing RSS and reading through Viigo?  Done.  I just subscribed to JD Rockefeller's biography on rss.  It was a pain because the dailylit URL is like 100 characters long, but I guess I could have done the subscription on the bbry browser and use the cut and paste function.  Instead in subscribed on the PC and hand typed in the URL.  But it works. Who needs a special reader?  I now have books on Blackberry.

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putting in my order for a Go Fast

jet pack.  The 20 mile range one.  I hope they actually build this thing.

Posted by Martin at 4:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Post this sticker at your gas station

get it on-line here:

Posted by Martin at 12:05 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

EPA finally implements the national RFS (two years late)

on Sept. 1, the EPA finally started enforcing the national Renewable Fuel Standard that was passed into law way back in 2005.  The goals are today under the actual production and there is no carve out for Biodiesel, but that is changing.  Lets hope that now that the administrative enforcement is in place, the policy makers can pass some actual stretch goals.

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September 4, 2007

A story about "The Road (Oprah's Book Club)"

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Signing HECO contract

Imperium signed a fuel supply contract with Hawaii Electric Company two weeks ago. It is disclosed in our S1. What is missing is the photo. How bout those shirts eh? (I am the one in the middle)

Posted by Martin at 10:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Review of first Seven IMX dirt ride

Took the new Seven out for a dirty ride today. It was raining slightly, but still warmish (70). Look ma, dirt on the new bike!
Basically completely happy. Very different riding a hard tail from the old full suspension. Very compliant. And you really feel the bunnyhops! The back end is just there, sticky. I also noticed that over little burms the front fork would compress and then the hard tail would pop up off if I was going fast enough. I had forgotten hard tails do that. But controllable. On the flats I locked out the Fox fork and the bike rode like a road bike, completely solid and fast. With the front suspension on, I didn't feel most of the bumps in the road, completely soaked them up without having that springy feeling. On the climbs I never felt like I was compressing the suspension, that is the whole idea and it works! The XTR groupo was flawless and I really appreciated the granny gear coming up Queen Anne. I actually overrode the big gear on the flats with my slicks, so I may get a couple teeth larger big gear. Overall, totally jazzed!

Posted by Martin at 10:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

trying out bite sized lit

just subscribed by RSS to Secret Agent  by Joseph Conrad over at DailyLit.  I have always wanted to read it, but haven't gotten around to ordering it. Now they will chunk it up for me and send it along. They only have about a hundred books, all in public domain right now.  I hope they get more.

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Posted by Martin at 8:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

checking out Mozy

OK, finally someone has done simple file backup cheap and right. This is not enterprise backup. This is not bare metal back-up. It will not restore your OS.  But it will save your bacon if/when you need  your personal files.  If I didn't have a duplicate RAID at home running RetroSpect, I would back-up with MOZY.  They should do deals with ISPs.

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Jay Leno's EcoJet powered by Imperium Renewables gets more play

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns (photo, R) and thousands of attendees at the Farm Progress Show last week got to see what millions have heard about on late night television. Tonight Show host and auto enthusiast Jay Leno has worked with GM in developing the EcoJet concept car that is propelled by a jet engine powered by B100 biodiesel. To build on this positive recognition of biodiesels benefits, New Holland displayed Lenos EcoJet in its exhibit at the Farm Progress Show in Decatur, Ill. on Aug. 28 and 29. The National Biodiesel Board (NBB) CEO Joe Jobe appeared with Leno in a webisode of Jay Lenos Garage earlier this year. Leno uses biodiesel in the New Holland tractor that moves his cars in the garage. Leno also did a three-part series on the EcoJet. The EcoJet is one more example of how biodiesel enhances future vehicle technology, said Jobe. We appreciate the support of Jay Leno and New Holland for bringing the EcoJet to the Farm Progress Show. It helps us raise awareness for the important role that biodiesel plays in our nations energy security. Click here for sound clips, photos and more. Don Scott, NBB technical and regulatory engineer, has also traveled across the nation with the EcoJet on a promotional tour.

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