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July 24, 2007
AGE adds facts to a cry for relief from oil crisis
Thanks Aron for this note from AG Edwards Chief Global Investment Strategist.
You a numbers guy?
Believe in them? Where here are the bare facts in barrels per person and nominal population growth rates. This does not factor in any accelleration in China or India due to increased standards of living (increased average oil usage) over the period.
ouch
AGE Chart-Looming Crisis In Crude Oil.pdf
This chart shows that each person in the world consumes an average of 4.7 barrels of oil per person per year. In the United States, we consume 25.2 barrels per person per year. The world currently consumes 83.7 million barrels per day; if the world continues to consume 4.7 barrels per person per year, assuming U.S. Census Bureau estimates of population, by 2020 the world will consume 98 million barrels per day, which would far exceed current OPEC excess capacity. This is the looming crisis in crude oil: the bulk of the worlds reserves (86%) resides in OPEC and the former Soviet Union. Without a global reduction in demand, it will take a massive level of investment in these rather hostile nations to meet trend consumption.
Posted by Martin at July 24, 2007 9:55 PM
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