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April 4, 2004
The Record industry is Lying about downloads effect on sales
I have thought for some time that the recording industry has been using funny numbers to support their assertion that digital music downloads have caused the drop in CD sales over the last couple of years. Now a The New York Times is reporting a new study out of Harvard confirms this. Using rigorous analysis of actual downloads correlated to CD sales in a specific geography, there is nearly no coorelation. The authors point out that free attracts a large number of people who may not even be CD buyers in the first place. The interesting question is what will the Music Monopoly say when CD sales spike up? They have been down for three years. At the same time as the general economy. Now the economy is coming back. And some great new music is coming out. What if sales pick up? Will they claim that their lawsuits are working? P2P usage is still up and to the right. The facts won't support this. I bet when CD sales spike, P2P will be up as well.
Don't get me wrong, I believe the CD sales model is a dying channel. It is a business model gasping it's last breaths. But it will have a couple dead cat bounces along the way.
Posted by Martin at April 4, 2004 7:55 PM
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